up:: [[The Cynefin Framework]] The Estuarine Framework is the third major framework in the Cynefin ecosystem (the previous two frameworks are [[The Cynefin Framework]] and [[Flexuous Curves]]). The framework was developed as an antidote to traditional approaches to strategy that fail in the face of the complexity of human systems. It reflects the key principles of change in complex environments: 1. Understanding where we are, and starting journeys with a sense of direction rather than abstract goals. 2. Understanding, and working with propensities and dispositions, managing both so that the things you desire have a lower energy cost than the things you don’t. 3. Initiating and monitoring micro-nudges, lots of small projects rather than one big project so that success and failure are both (non-ironically) opportunities. It embodies the [[Vector Theory of Change]] - ![[Estaurine Mapping Diagram from Cynefinio.png]] ## How To 1. In a workshop with all key stakeholders, brainstorm the [[Constraints]] and [[Constructors]] in the environment (this can also be done using tools like [[SenseMaker]]). Participants are introduced to a [[A Typology of Constraints]] to aid the generation of richer material. 2. Remove any previous [[Scaffolding]] and shuffle the constraints. The group then places each of the [[Constraints]] and [[Constructors]] on a grid with two axes; energy to change on the y axis, and time on the x axis. Energy represents effort, resources, people. Things are clustered, de-duplicated, and renamed in the process. 3. The first [[Boundaries|boundary]] to be drawn onto the grid is the [[Counterfactuals|counterfactual]] border. It is drawn in the top-right corner of the grid. Everything above this line is considered, for all intents and purposes, unchangeable. 4. A [[Liminal|liminal]] boundary can be introduced just below the [[Counterfactuals|counterfactual]] boundary to [[Boundaries|contain]] things that might be [[Counterfactuals]], but aren't quite immovable--perhaps someone outside the process has such [[Agency]]. 5. The group then brainstorms the first set of micro-projects, consisting of "monitors" and "forward scouts". These projects provide indicators that the [[Boundaries]] might be shifting or changing. 6. A final [[Boundaries|boundary]] is then drawn around the bottom left corner of the grid to isolate the [[Constraints]] that require the least amount of energy and time to change. These are the systems vulnerabilities, because change that is too easy and too quick to make is a sign volatility. These [[Constraints]] are assessed for impact. 7. The group brainstorms a second set of micro-projects, with the aim to stabilise, control, or contain the vulnerabilities. Then identifies safe-to-fail experiments geared towards the desired outcomes for each cluster of [[Constraints]]. 8. A final set of micro-projects can then be brainstormed to target any gaps in the grid where new [[Constraints]] and [[Constructors]] could be introduced. ###### Sources [[Estuarine Framework by Cynefin.io]] ###### Related down:: [[A Typology of Constraints]], [[A Typology of Action]]