up:: [[The Adjacent Possible]] In [this video on YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJwoHyJDVLk&t=3s), [[@Stuart Kauffman]] presents the theory of the adjacent possible in the form of [[The TAP Equation]] (below). It was born from the following question: suppose you have an economy with some number of things ($M$) at some point in time ($_T$), how many things would you have in the economy in the next period ($_{T+1}$)--whether that be the next day or next year. > [!important] The TAP Equation > $M_{T+1} = M_T+P\sum_{i=1}^{M_T} a^i(\frac{M_T}{i})$ > > Where: > $P$ is some probability between 0 and 1 > $_i$ is a running variable, starting at 1 up to $M_T$ > $a^i$ is recombination of things in singles, pairs, triplets etc. We constantly recombine our existing tools to make new, useful things; its the process we call [[Innovation]]. E.g., the printing press of Gutenberg is a recombination between movable type and a wine press, and the Wright brother's airplane is a recombination of an aerofoil, an engine, a propeller, and bicycle wheels. A weakness of the equation is that doesn't take into account the fact that things also disappear. However, [[@Stuart Kauffman|Kauffman]] doesn't believe taking this into account would materially impact the implication of the equation. This is because things tend to come and go in "avalanches". When the car came along in the 1900s, it drove out the horse; and along with it, the buggy, buggy whip etc. However, with the car came paved roads, petrol stations, restaurants, motels, and suburbia. This is know as a [[@Joseph Schumpeter|Schumpeterian]] gale of [[Creative Destruction]]. ###### Sources [[Theory of the Adjacent Possible with Stuart Kauffman]] ###### Related left:: [[Industrial Revolution]], [[Creative Destruction]], [[Path Dependence]]